IPCS Forecast 2016: cardinal transitions, red herrings, shrinking spaces

IPCS Forecast 2016: cardinal transitions, red herrings, shrinking spaces

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) Forecast 2016 is a collection of writings on the near-term trajectories of a wide range of geographic and thematic issues covering Asia, the United States and Nuclear power and energy, authored by analysts and scholars from the Indian strategic community and beyond.

The introduction argues that in 2016, India is likely to hit a sweet spot and come to be seen – despite a host of domestic debilities and external vulnerabilities – as an island of growth and stability. This year, several countries whose internal dynamics are acutely relevant to India will undergo internal transitions of one sort or another.

Leading the pack are the three countries that constitute India’s three cardinal external relationships: the US, China, and Pakistan. Three others – Myanmar, Afghanistan and Nepal – in India’s immediate neighbourhood too are experiencing protracted political transitions. Finally, there is an important evolving relationship with Brazil, a country three oceans and two hemispheres away that is experiencing severe internal turbulence and could well be heading towards transition.
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