CARIWIG assessment of climate change impacts on selected crops and livestock in Belize and Jamaica: an example for the Caribbean Basin

CARIWIG assessment of climate change impacts on selected crops and livestock in Belize and Jamaica: an example for the Caribbean Basin

This study reveals that substantial negative impacts on food production should be expected from future climate scenarios such as those provided by PRECIS simulations made under different initial assumptions in Belize. This is an indicator of the fact that future plausible climates should be considered in the planning stage of any development strategy at all – local, regional and national – levels. The expected impact of climate change should be included as part of the previously included set of traditional considerations when it comes to a decision-making process related to sustainable development of Caribbean economies.

On the contrary, results obtained in Jamaica using a different approach indicated a sizable increase in rainfed yields of the sweet potato crop. Given the different methodological approaches used in both studies (and the different crops) it is very difficult at the present stage to make an inter-comparison of modelling results because the differences and uncertainties are not basically related to the impact crop models results, but also to the future climate change scenarios themselves.

As the consideration of future climate conditions is not a simple straightforward process, national meteorological authorities, universities and research centres should raise their level of commitment for the planning stage of decision-making processes and at the same time increase their capabilities for providing the necessary climate information and expertise related to climate, climate change and expected impacts of climate change. 

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