Impact of climate change on select value chains in Mozambique

Impact of climate change on select value chains in Mozambique

In Mozambique, where agriculture accounts for more than 25 percent of gross domestic product and employs about 80 percent of the country’s workforce, climate change has potential to reduce production of key crops and jeopardize both macroeconomic stability and the livelihoods of millions of people.

Despite this, the country, with just 16 percent of arable land under cultivation, has great potential to expand the agriculture sector. This report considers both sides of the challenge, detailing the likely impact of climate changes on three key crops (soy, pigeon pea and sesame) and analyzing opportunities to manage those risks across the value chain. Focused on the four central provinces, the report concludes with concrete recommendations for decision-makers.

This report demonstrates a strong likelihood of increased temperatures, extreme weather events and changes in rainfall patterns in Mozambique, together with evidence that some of these changes have already begun. In response, the agricultural system must adapt and become more resilient to these changes. The uncertainty associated with future climate is compounded by the fact that climate change is occurring on top of significant existing interannual variability in climate. Therefore, it is impossible to plan for a single future scenario or single set of on-the-ground agricultural interventions that will be effective in all areas of Mozambique in all years. In the end, it will be important to develop robust solutions that build national, community and individual resilience to respond to the entire suite of future climate scenarios.

One approach is to pair a package of locally relevant climate-smart agricultural practices with improved climate and weather information for decision-making. This way, farmers can decide what will be the most effective adaptive strategy in a specific year given their local context and constraints.
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