FAST Early Warning note: maize forecast 10 July 2008 - West Africa

FAST Early Warning note: maize forecast 10 July 2008 - West Africa

July 2008 maize forecast for West Africa

This paper, produced by EARS Earth Environment Monitoring, provides a preliminary forecast of the maize difference yield that is expected at the end of the current growing season in West Africa.

Using a satellite base yield forecasting system developed and operated by EARS called Food Assessment by Satellite Technology (FAST), the assessment of crop growth conditions and the crop yield forecasts are based on visible and thermal infra-red hourly data from geostationary meteorological satellites.

The paper finds that:

  • yield prospects are favourable for most countries and above average output is anticipated in the main growing areas in Nigeria, Benin, Central African Republic, Ivory Cost, Guinea and Guinea- Bissau
  • the maize yield is forecasted to be less favourable in Western Burkina Faso, an important crop production area for West Africa. The affected provinces in Burkina Faso are Bougouriba, Boulkiemde, Houet, Mou Houn, Poni, Sanguie Sissili and Sourou
  • some areas in Koulikoro province in Mali are affected but the province forecast of Koulikoro is still positive (+ 0.4%)
  • yield forecasts for Nigeria are very good with surpluses of four to five percent relative to the previous five years but with less favourable prospects in the provinces Jigawa, Kano, Oyo and Yobe
  • a critical area could be Northern Ghana where the Upper-East and Upper-West provinces show yield reductions of five to six percent.
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