Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades

Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades

This paper argues that climate change could have a large impact on crop yields and food security.

This paper estimates the risks that climate trends over the next 10 or 20 years could have large impacts on global yields of wheat and maize, with a focus on scenarios that would cut the expected rates of yield gains in half. The paper also finds that global warming has also greatly increased the chance of climate trends large enough to halve yield trends over a 10 year period, with a roughly 1 in 4 chance for maize and 1 in 6 chance for wheat. Estimated risks are slightly larger when using climate projections from a large ensemble of a single climate model that more fully explores internal climate variability, than a multi-model ensemble that more fully explores model uncertainty.

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