Incorporating International Best Practices in the preparation of Agricultural Outlook and Situation Analysis Reports for India - Phase II: FAO/UNDP January - March, 2014

Incorporating International Best Practices in the preparation of Agricultural Outlook and Situation Analysis Reports for India - Phase II: FAO/UNDP January - March, 2014

Overall, the current global agricultural outlook scenario is one of caution for India, a major exporter of rice, wheat, maize, and oil meal and importer of vegetable oils and pulses, especially in the context of concerns over the projected sub-normal rainfall and the El Nino factor.

The price outlook for food commodities in 2014-15 is generally seen to be bearish, although in recent months, there has been some strengthening of prices of cereals and vegetable oils. Significant fluctuations in monsoon rainfall continue to have a huge impact on Indian agriculture and its economy. In 2014, India already faces a deficit of over 40 per cent of normal rainfall for June, adversely affecting sowing operations in the kharif season. Rainfall deficiency is widespread across the country. While some of the losses in production may be offset by the second crop in winter, the growth rate of agriculture GDP is likely to be well below the 4.6 per cent achieved in 2013-14. Agriculture’s strong performance in 2013-14 had helped support overall economic growth in 2013-14 as industrial output stagnated for the second year in a row.

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