Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey

This survey compares civilian mortality rates Iraq during the period of before the invasion and compares this with the rates after the invasion. The authors estimate that 98,000 more deaths than expected happened after the invasion outside of Falluja (two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in this city) and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included.

For the survey, 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed about household composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders. After the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread (reported in 15 of 33 clusters) and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher than in the period before the war. If the Falluja data is excluded, the risk of death is 1·5-fold higher after the invasion.

The report emphasises that the collection of valid mortality data is possible even in extreme and difficult circumstances. Occupying forces can and should be able to keep precise tallies of civilian deaths and finally calls for a re-evaluation of the consequences of weaponry now used by coalition forces in populated areas.

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