Assessing the security implications of climate change for West Africa: country case studies of Ghana and Burkina Faso

Traditionally seen as an environmental and an energy issue, climate change is now also being cast as a threat to international peace and security. Africa, though the least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, is seen as the continent most likely to suffer its worst consequences -a function of the continent’s reliance on climate-dependent sectors (such as rain-fed agriculture) and its history of resource, ethnic and political conflict.

There have been some attempts to construct scenarios of the security implications of climate change at a global scale, but local experts in the subject countries are rarely consulted. This paper attempts to address this research gap with a focus on two West African countries: Ghana and Burkina Faso.

Three scenarios (a best case, a medium case and a worst case) were presented to local experts from a variety of different sectors. Using these three scenarios as a basis for discussion, the participants were asked to discuss the implications of each scenario across six different sectors: agriculture and food security, productive systems and exports, water, natural disasters and risk management, migration, and  health.

Seven broad findings are identified by the study. These include:

• Ghana and Burkina Faso already face considerable development challenges from existing economic, population and environmental stresses
  
• climate change is not new to West Africa; the Sahelian region in particular and the region in general are characterised by some of the most variable climates on the planet
• future climate change will likely make many current development challenges more complex and urgent. Ghana’s National Communication on Climate Change identified water, agricultural crops and coastal zones as sectors and areas particularly vulnerable. Burkina Faso’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) identified water, agriculture, stockbreeding and forestry/fisheries as the most vulnerable sectors
• there are links between climate change and security in the region and there is anecdotal evidence that climate change has already been associated with conflict in West Africa
• only in the extreme scenarios does climate change begin to present a determining factor in future economic and political instability
• adaptation to climate change needs to be integrated within wider plans for development assistance, and the additional costs for that adaptation need to be funded with “new money” so as not to undercut development priorities elsewhere