Is clientelism at work in African elections? A study of voting behavior in Kenya and Zambia

African politics is commonly characterized as clientelistic, having evolved from the concept of “neo-patrimonalism,” in the post-colonial authoritarian era. Neo-patrimonalism is a system where politicians are given jobs in exchange for service to the ruler. This study challenges the notion that personalism and clientelism structure voting behavior in Africa. This study hinged on the combining of individual-level survey data with actual election returns. It uses survey responses from Afrobarometer and constituency-level election returns to test the relative power of interactions between voters and members of parliament.

The paper discusses how it operationalizes the following hypotheses:

• Direct, interpersonal interaction with MPs causes voters to support them because of clientelistic exchange
• Voters judge their MP based on the MP's attention to the constituency
  

The analysis uses two separate dependent variables to measure support for an incumbent MP. The
first being the MP's vote share from the election preceding the survey and the other is a dichotomous measure of whether or not the incumbent was re-elected.For purposes of this analysis, the study selects survey results from Kenya and Zambia. The two countries were selected because Kenya convened its fourth multiparty election in 2007 and Zambia its fourth in 2006. They are also countries where no one party dominates, and thus voters have a plausible set of alternatives.

The study attempts to make a distinction between voters' expectations for public against private goods. The study finds that:

• Kenyan voters punished incumbents much more heavily than Zambian voters
• Direct contact between voters and MPs does not help an incumbent and shows evidence that an MP's presence in their electoral constituencies impresses voters
• Voters' change in living conditions is not statistically related to support for an incumbent MP
• Voters seem to reward a representative who appears committed to look out for those who put them in office
• MPs who spend more time in their constituency do better to deliver development projects
• Voters in Africa are more interested public goods than private goods
• Clientelism is an equivalent to constituency service and may be viewed in terms of interpersonal interactions
  

The paper concludes that while politicians engage in clientelistic behaviors like giving personal gifts and favors, and voters accept these offerings, such interactions do not determine patterns of electoral support.