Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery ...

This paper analyses the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. It hypothesises that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. The authors combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). The paper runs logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. The authors state that results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however - the authors claim - is less robust.