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This study presents a methodology of conflict prevention and early warning for Latin America. Designed as an instrument to assess the impact of multiple forms of violent conflict and political crisis on democratic governance, the methodology also assesses the impact of democratic governance on violence, crime and social unrest.

The methodology is designed to be applied to each country in the region using similar standards and interpretive frameworks. It identifies a country’s historical legacies, state capacities, political and economic arenas; and the dimensions of violent conflict ranging from unorganized criminal violence to organized crime and armed conflict among political contenders.

By applying this methodology to the case of Columbia, the study finds that the protracted political violence has roots in:

• state weakness
• unconsolidated democratic institutions
• reigning impunity
• deep-rooted and deteriorating social conflicts

The study demonstrates that the structural conditions of crisis and violence are exacerbated by the strategic decisions of armed actors to contest territory and power through the forced and violent coercion of local populations. As such, the resolution of the conflict requires not only humanitarian assistance and structural reforms at the social and economic and political levels but also a political solution to the protracted war.

The study concludes that it is imperative that national and international actors attempt to address the critical humanitarian needs. They should address institutional and social issues identified in this report, and try to prepare the ground for some form of political settlement in the future.

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