Technology options for low stabilization pathways with MERGE

New technologies and technological change are expected to play a key role in stabilising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations to avoid a greater than 2°C increase in average global temperatures above pre-industrial levels. This paper investigates long-term transitions of the global energy system compatible with realising low stabilisation climate targets, using an enhanced MERGE model. The results indicate that stringent mitigation targets can be met under many technology scenarios, but major technological change is needed, highlighting important roles for R&D and learning-by-doing. It explores the impact of limiting the set of available technology options and identifies important influences on energy system development and economic costs under low stabilisation.

The paper concludes with the following observations:

• biomass availability is seen to have a major influence on the characteristics of the energy system
• carbon capture and storage technologies also prove to be potentially critical for both electricity and fuel synthesis, particularly when combined with biomass to produce net negative emissions
• the availability of fast breeders provides a competitive zero emissions option
• to achieve low stabilisation requires long-term large-scale deployment of renewable
• alternative development pathways like changes in lifestyle and behaviour would provide other options for achieving stringent mitigation targets
• to ensure that the discussed energy supply technologies are available for technical reasons it is important to pursue other driving and behavioural factors
• technology options for substantially improving energy efficiency of end-use devices will provide additional options for reducing energy demand.