an Eldis Resource
Modelling the HIV/AIDS epidemics in India and Botswana: the effect of interventions
Modelling the impact of a range of possible HIV/AIDS interventions in India and Botswana
Authors:
N. Nagelkerke; P Jha; S. de Vlas; E. Korenromp; S. Moses; J.B.F. Plummer
Publisher:
Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, WHO, 2001
In order to identify best strategies for HIV/AIDS control in two different countries, India and Botswana, the authors developed a dynamic compartmental simulation model.
Several interventions were considered:
- a sex worker (CSW) focussed behavioural intervention
- a Mwanza-style conventional STI (sexually transmitted infections) treatment programme
- A mother-to-child transmission prevention programme
- a highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) treatment programme for the entire population
- a HAART treatment programme for sex workers only.
The model found that oth the Mwanza-style and CSW intervention hold promise for long term control, although their ranking is difficult to decide with certainty. Mother to child transmission programmes will do just that but will not dent the epidemic itself. HAART interventions may have short lived effects on transmission, but within decades drug resistance will be generalized and the epidemic will continue unabated. A more restrictive use, targeting only late stage patients, would delay the development of resistance somewhat.
