El Niño and Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

ENSO information could improve drought early warning by providing longer lead times to respond. This could enable farmers to identify suitable seeds and times for planting. This task is complicated, however, because Ethiopian farming is composed of numerous diverse microclimates. ENSO information would become more useful at the local level if it could be "tailored" to the needs of farmers by giving them specific information and recommendations. Adequate early warning could enable farmers to sell their animals before they die of starvation. With such information, food could be imported and preparations for drought impact in other sectors of the economy could be made. Despite the local limitations, ENSO information is useful for national and global policies that mitigate the adverse impacts of drought. National decisionmakers could use ENSO information to encourage farmers to produce, at least temporarily, food crops in place of cash crops, such as sugar cane, qat, and flowers. They could import food early and at lower cost and could reduce food exports. The information is also useful to solicit foreign resources before the full-blown impact of disaster becomes visible. [author]