Local-Level Data for use as Early Warning Indicators

There is considerable debate on the appropriate design of early warning systems for the prediction of drought and famine in Africa. Much of the debate centers on the ability of current or prospective indicators to provide information that is location-specific, timely, and cost-effective. While macro-level environmental data are generally agreed to be useful, they are unable to distinguish with sufficient lead time those individual communities most in need of relief. The use of local-level indicators has, therefore, been suggested to provide information on deteriorating economic conditions and food supply at the village or sub-district level. However, the choice of indicators and how they are to be monitored in any given area remains controversial. Paper presents some of the issues that surround the choice of appropriate local-level early warning indicators. It then examines a number of such indicators currently in use or suggested for use in Africa, concentrating on the role of economic, nutritional, and behavioral data in predicting crises. [author]