North Korea on the precipice of famine

The margin of error between required grain in North Korea and available supply is now less than 100,000 metric tons. Local food prices are sky-rocketing faster than world prices, the regime has soured its aid relationships with key donors, and its control-oriented policy responses are exacerbating distress. In short, this paper argues that North Korea now stands on the precipice of famine. 

The authors claim that there are reasons to believe that the crisis of 2008 will not approach the magnitude of the great famine of the mid-1990s. However, they underline that information still remains scarce, and a similar set of political dynamics is in play in the current conjuncture. It is argued that, while it is tempting to gamble that depriving the regime of food aid will spell its downfall, this cannot be assured and such a policy would expose the most vulnerable of the population to the risks of malnutrition and even death. 

The paper draws the following policy conclusions:

• the long-run solution to North Korea’s chronic food insecurity problems is a revitalisation of the industrial economy, which would allow North Korea to export industrial products, earn foreign exchange, and import bulk grains on a commercially sustainable basis. The success of this strategy will require significant progress toward final resolution of the nuclear issue
• in the short run, North Korea should openly acknowledge the growing crisis and conclude negotiations with the World Food Programme (WFP) and other donors so that assistance can begin to flow

The authors argue that the international community also needs to act . China and South Korea are identified as pivotal because of their proximity and the availability of stocks, which can be released on short notice. Other regional players, including Thailand, Vietnam, and India, are also seen to have a role and should contemplate commitments through the WFP, other NGOs, and commercial channels

The authors welcome the Bush administration’s broader food initiatives of early May and note that the United States has also now signalled clearly that large-scale food commitments to North Korea will be forthcoming following North Korea’s nuclear declaration in the Six-Party Talks. They argue that the United States can also provide aid in ways that maximize its humanitarian impact while limiting the degree to which aid simply serves to bolster the regime, for example, providing aid in forms less preferred for elite consumption.

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