China’s political trajectory: internal contradictions and inner-party democracy

In today’s increasingly interconnected global environment, this paper looks at the Chinese political landscape and the possibility of a shift away from the communist system, and towards significant political change.

The author argues that during the past 30 years, China’s meteoric economic growth, profound societal transformations, and multi-faceted integration with the outside world have been widely recognised by both policymakers and the general public in the United States. Yet, the author asserts, the American China studies community seems to have been struck by a prolonged and peculiar sort of political blindness. The early signs of Chinese political experiments, such as genuine local elections and regional representations at the national leadership, have largely been overlooked. Some important socio-political forces unleashed by the country’s transition toward a market economy, including the emergence of an entrepreneurial class and a middle class, are commonly perceived as factors that are more likely to consolidate the existing authoritarian political system than to challenge it.

Key concluding thoughts include:

• inner-Party democracy is not true democracy, but it may pave the way for a more fundamental change in the Chinese political system - the democratic transition of the world’s most populous nation, if it occurs, will certainly be no easy task
• in the absence of a broad-based and well-organised political opposition in the PRC, it is unlikely that the country will develop a multi-party political system in the near future - this fact actually makes the ongoing experiments with inner-Party bipartisanship even more important
• the next ten to fifteen years will test the political instincts, strategic vision, wisdom, humility, and capabilities of the Chinese leadership
• the current period will test whether China can make a major step towards a more institutionalised transition to power-sharing - one must hope that the next generation of Chinese leaders is up to this task.