World water and food to 2025: dealing with scarcity

The key messages of this presentation are:

1. Increasing competition for water severely limits irrigation and constrains food production
2. Slow progress in extending access to safe drinking water; water quality will decline; amount of water for environmental uses will be inadequate
3. Moderate worsening in current water policies and investments could lead to full-blown water crisis
4. Fundamental changes in water management and policy can produce a sustainable future for water and food

The presentation uses the Water Simulation Model to estimate effective water for irrigation and rain fed production based on climate parameters, infrastructure, and policy inputs. It suggests three approaches to the state of availability of water:

• Business as usual scenario; assumes continuation of existing trends:

Continued decline in crop research investments

Declining investment in irrigation expansion and reservoir storage

Limited institutional and management reform

Water use efficiency increases slowly

Slow growth in harvested area

Production increase mainly through yield growth

Low priority of rainfed agriculture

Expansion of groundwater pumping

No increase in environmental flows

• Water crisis scenario; assumes worsening of existing policies and trends:

Sharp reduction in investment in water storage, O&M

Degradation of irrigation infrastructure and management

Reduced water use efficiency

Lower investment in rainfed crop breeding and slower growth in rainfed crop yields

Increased erosion and sedimentation

Decline in net water storage due to reduced investment and sedimentation

Reduction in environmental flows

Low investment in water supply systems, decline in access to household water services. 

• Sustainable water use scenario; Assumes improvement of existing policies and trends and focus on environment:

Increase in investment in rainfed crop research and higher growth in rainfed yields

Medium growth in water storage; reduced sedimentation balances lower investment

Higher water use efficiency due to water management reform and higher agricultural water prices

More effective use of rainfall

Increased water prices and higher investment in water supply systems

Sharp increase in reserved environmental flows

Elimination of groundwater overdraft

The policy conclusions presented are as follows:

1. Reform of water management policies, and investments to improve water efficiency
2. Water price incentives and water trading
3. Increasing crop productivity: water management, agricultural research and rural investment.