Volcanic island in crisis: investigating environmental uncertainty and the complexity it brings

This paper explores the complex socio-political relations which developed on a volcanically uncertain island and which continue to create difficult emergency management challenges by a complex set of economic and political relationships

This article argues that Montserrat has been an extreme example of the complexity involved in the management of a volcanic crisis. There have been points of extremely high risk but little visible cues and numerous crisis points with difficult decision-making conundrums. The management of this natural phenomenon has been compounded by the complex socio-political factors often typical of a small colonial island. The small size of the island also made emergency management problematic.

It is argued that the lack of preparedness plans and volcanic risk reduction activities on Montserrat can be attributed to the following causes:

• Limited corporate learning: The rotation of the Governor every 3-4 years with limited support staff reduced the capacity for retention of corporate knowledge of scientific activities and disaster preparedness. 
• Difficulty in communication a low probability high consequence exit: The British government’s review into the handling of the crisis blamed the non-existent volcanic preparedness on an inability or unwillingness to comprehend the disastrous potential of a volcanic eruption. However, the report did not communicate well the short-term risks in a format accessible to emergency managers.

   

It has been suggested that the crisis could have been handled more effectively if:

• A shift from short-term disaster management to longer-term development planning earlier in the crisis, with better shelter provision and the earlier development of accommodation in the north

• The establishment earlier in the crisis of an inter-departmental crisis team with the authority to  fast-track decisions and finances

• More responsibility for decision-making on island. Long distance communication of uncertain but high consequence risks can be very problematic. Sensitive decision-making is difficult for those who do not understand the situation intimately.

• A more qualitative or ‘blurred’ element to the communication and implementation of uncertain science, especially in terms of delineating marginal exclusion zone boundaries.

   

The report highlights the lessons learnt from this crisis:

• Volcanologists need to be equipped for the social demands they may encounter in a volcanic crisis and be prepared to adapt their role.

   

• During a long-running crisis it is important to continually update and renew education and outreach activities with innovative techniques.

   

• Risk communicators need to mix and match communication methods to suit the audience and must have confidence to relinquish some responsibility for decision-making to those at risk