A Country turning blue?: political party support and the end of regionalism in Malawi

After Malawi’s seminal 1994 elections in which the country made the transition back to multiparty politics, commentators were alarmed at how regionalistic the voting pattern appeared to be.   Northerners had voted overwhelmingly (88%) for Chakufwa Chihana, the Alliance for Democracy (AFORD) candidate.  A large majority (64%) of those in Central Region had thrown their support behind the country’s long-standing president, Hastings Kamuzu Banda, of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP).  And Southerners were largely responsible for selecting the ultimate winner, Bakili Muluzi of the UDF, with a resounding 78% casting their vote his way (along with 28% of those in Central Region).  These patterns raised the concern that democracy could destroy the sense of national unity that had been so much cherished under one-party rule.

This bulletin draws on data of public attitudes to examine trends in party support in Malawi over the course of the last decade, looking especially at the extent of regionalism in Malawian party politics.

The paper provides the following findings:

• Rather than regionalism and an excess of disunity, the country may now be more at risk of evolving into a one-party dominant system, reflecting perhaps an excess of unity
  
  
• The increasingly volatile party arena appears to have been leaving an increasing number of Malawians unsure of their allegiances. Affiliation has gone back up slightly to 68% in 2008, perhaps reflecting a stabilizing or settling in of the new party line-up
  
  
• New parties have been born, while others have fragmented, wilted away, or been absorbed by the newcomers. Some parties have increasingly solidified their credentials as truly national parties, often by making in-roads in regions once considered the strongholds of their competitors
  
  
• There has been a decline in the proportion of people who feel close to a political party over time. From a high of 81% in 1999, affiliation declined to a low of 61% in 2005. Not surprisingly, the low point occurs not long after the turbulent 2004 elections, and shortly after President Mutharika and his colleagues had left UDF to form the DPP.
  

The paper provides the following conclusions:

• In the early days of multipartyism in Malawi, voting trends raised deep concerns about emerging regionalism and national disunity: each of the three main parties was clearly aligned with one of the country’s three regions
  
  
• Malawians from all regions seem to be rallying behind a single party, which could leave the opposition weak and divided. Of course, in the short run this is not necessarily a cause for concern, and it is far too soon to see whether this trend reflects a lasting phenomenon
  
  
• Malawian voters have, over time, clearly demonstrated that popularity of a party is not necessarily dependent on which region the president comes from but largely on the extent of internal democracy.