Impacts of climate change to the global economy in the ENSEMBLES +2 °C scenario E1

The E1 scenario is one which represents an achievement of the European Union's target to limit climate change in global mean temperature by +2 °C in 2100. This report summarises impacts to the global economies of this scenario.

The findings of the paper indicate that: 

• the economic impacts are generally modest, although unevenly distributed across world regions 
• the overall impact of the E1 scenario to the global economy is generally positive
• this is due to the positive impact of climate change in resource-based sectors, and a decline in the demand for energy 
• in addition, the scenario has a positive impact on sectors which are not directly affected by climatic changes
• rich and fast-growing regions are expected to gain from these impacts, whilst poorer regions bear the largest relative losses 
• Africa and south Asia in particular exhibit the largest reduction in value added in 2100.
  

However, this document notes that adaptation and the resulting market responses play an important role in assessing the impacts to sectors as well as to regions. In this sense, the immediate impacts may turn from positive to negative, or from negative to positive, as a result of a change of prices in the wake of climate change.