Food prices, social unrest and the Facebook generation

Both recent and historic events point to a close link between riots and food prices. This article aims at providing a credible estimate on the impact of food prices on social unrest manifested in the form of demonstrations and/or riots. The paper considers monthly time series of the past two decades, focusing on the role of online communication (e.g. Facebook) in present-day mass mobilisation.

The document presents the following findings:

• food is such a basic necessity that can mobilise ‘the moderates’ which otherwise would not engage in costly collective actions
• the evolution in communication technology may have profoundly affected the impact of food price changes on social unrest; the new media allowed ordinary persons to send signals to so many people
• a one percent increase in the deviation from the trend in food prices significantly increases the odds ratio of an urban disturbance event 
• this is true both for a positive and a negative deviation from the trend, indicating that net-consumers of food as well as net-producers engage in collective action upon price changes
• the relationship between food price increase and social unrest has become stronger over time, whereas no such change can be found for the relationship between food price decreases and social unrest