Analysis of climate change impacts on coffee, cocoa and basic grains value chains in northern Honduras

This study examines, applying future climate local scenarios, climate change impacts in northern Honduras and makes recommendations to strengthen the resilience of the International Fund for Agricultural Development’s (IFAD) ‘Northern Horizons’ project beneficiaries in the coffee, cocoa, maize and bean value chains. The analysis was prepared jointly by the Fundación para la Investigación del Clima (FIC, Climate Research Foundation) and the Instituto de Estudios del Hambre (IEH, Institute of Hunger Studies).

Findings include the following.

• Expected impacts for the coffee crop are negative due to the increase in temperatures that will provoke changes in the crop cycle.
• In the maize crop, the future climate will be beneficial to most of the studied areas, though in some areas higher rainfall will complicate certain farming phases.
• For beans, increased rainfall will make sowing, flowering and grain filling more difficult.

Recommendations include improving the existing varieties and crop management, diversification of cocoa grower income sources with timber species, supporting investment in infrastructure such as irrigation systems or drying facilities, encouraging more efficient associations, supporting small scale-scale producers and doing research on the relationships between crop and climate.