Evaluation of downscaling and bias correction techniques to link climate and geo-hydrological impacts models
This document is the product P93c of GEMINA project that aimed to collect the main results from the application of bias-correction and weather generators techniques to climate simulations to estimate weather-related geo-hydrological impacts in the Mediterranean area.
This activity is carried out within WP A.2.17 "Analysis of geo-hydrological risk related to climate change" of GEMINA project. The main goal of WP A.2.17 is the analysis of climate change effects on occurrence and magnitude of landslides, floods and low flows hazards on some specific contexts in the Mediterranean.
To reach this objective, climate data at the same horizontal resolution (<10 km) of impacts model are required (WP A.2.6). Thus, in this document, the effects of downscaling and bias correction techniques on simulated/projected geo-hydrological hazards are investigated at different scales on the test case areas identified in WP A.2.17: Po river basin, Orvieto sites and the additional test case of Calore Irpino basin in southern Italy.
The researchers concluded that these techniques,while introducing an additional element of uncertainty to the overall modelling chain, do not alter the climate signal thus are a useful tool to provide qualitative and quantitative estimates of the climate change impacts on geo-hydrological hazards.