The international agenda

Within the science community, there is now broad consensus on the reality of human-induced climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes, in its Fourth Assessment, that it is 90 to 99 percent likely that the rise in global atmospheric temperature since the mid 19th Century has been caused by human activity.

The report predicts that the average global temperature may rise by about 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st Century, while sea level could rise by as much as 59 centimetres. Heat waves and periods of heavy rainfall are very likely to become more frequent.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires high-income countries to help the countries most at risk from climate change to adapt. Under the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol, several funds have been established to support this:

• The Adaptation Fund supports 'concrete adaptation' activities. Unlike the two funds below, it is based on private sector replenishment through carbon markets.
• The Least Developed Countries Fund has already supported the development of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) in these countries.
• The Special Climate Change Fund is for all developing countries and covers adaptation and other activities such as technology transfer, mitigation and economic diversification.

The Least Developed Countries, acknowledged as being amongst the most vulnerable to climate change, are being supported to develop NAPAs, which specify their urgent and immediate adaptation needs.

Donors in countries including Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States have allocated funding for adaptation activities, including research and some pilot projects. These include 'climate proofing' of existing projects and programmes (for example, funding the additional costs of making a dam better able to cope with the greater fluctuations in water availability) and 'stand alone' adaptation projects (such as new projects in the Small Island States struggling to cope with sea level rise).

Despite these international and bilateral efforts, a fully conceived, integrated and functioning regime for adaptation has yet to emerge. Progress has been made, but few adaptation measures are in place. In part, this is due to limited funds. The costs of adaptation are high: at least several billion US dollars per year for low and middle income countries alone. Existing funding sources will provide only a small fraction of this.

Funding is not the only challenge. Adaptation must be embedded in all aspects of policy making, planning and investment, at all levels:

• Countries need help to integrate climate risks into development projects and strategies. This will require greater institutional capacity. For example, urban planners often lack the capacity to ensure that city development minimises emissions and risks from climate change impacts.
• National policymakers are largely unaware of the potential impacts of climate change in different sectors. Planning in sectors such as health, agriculture, fisheries and forestry often fails to consider potential future climate change impacts.
• Vulnerability to climate change can be affected by the choice of development path, so each country needs to ensure adaptation is factored into its own planning at a strategic level.

Hannah Reid
International Institute for Environment and Development, 3 Endsleigh Street, London, WC1H ODD, UK
Hannah.reid@iied.org