The food crises and political instability in North Africa and the Middle East

It is noticeable that despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. This paper emphasises that riots and food prices are closely linked, identifying a specific food price threshold above which protests become likely.

The authors find that:

• conditions of widespread threat to security are particularly present when food is inaccessible to the population at large
• in this case, the underlying reason for support of the system is eliminated, and at the same time, sense of “there is nothing to lose" prevails
• the loss of support occurs even if the political system is not directly responsible for the food security failure, as is the case if the primary responsibility lies in the global food supply system

Conclusions are as follows:

• social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice 
• protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations
• the analysis of the link between global food prices and social unrest indicates that it is possible to build mathematical models of global economic and social crises
• on the whole, it is projected that within just a few years the trend of prices will reach the threshold, which points to a danger of spreading global social disruption
• avoiding the anticipated global food crises and associated social unrest requires rapid and concerted action