• Fisheries

Fisheries

Agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa has not kept pace with other developing countries. One factor is the changes in temperature and rainfall across the region since the 1950s. What does this mean for the future of African agriculture?

Research from the European Commission, the Ecole Polytechnique Palaiseau, in France, and Swansea University, in the UK, looks at the relationship between rainfall, temperature and agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It compares SSA experiences with developing countries in other continents. The researchers found that climatic changes have had significant effects on total agricultural output in SSA, more than in other developing countries.

All over the world, there has been a steady rise in temperature over the past few decades. But in SSA, there has also been a decline in the amount of rainfall. The amount of water available for agriculture also varies hugely across the region, because of diverse geographic conditions. As a result, a much smaller area of land is irrigated in SSA than in other developing countries.

Rainfall is high in some areas of SSA, particularly around the Equator, but the run-off from these areas to semi-arid and arid regions is low. The parched soil in drier regions absorbs run-off quickly and high temperatures increase the water-holding capacity of air, so less water reaches the ground. These factors make agriculture in SSA particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall and temperature.

The researchers estimated future agricultural output across SSA with regard to changing temperature and rainfall. They used data from the International Panel on Climate Change and the Food and Agriculture Organization concerning labour, livestock, fertiliser, capital, land, rainfall and temperature. While considering the whole region may overlook differences within this large and diverse region, it has the advantage of providing an indication of broad changes.

• Since the mid-1970s, rainfall in SSA has been below the pre-1960 average. At the same time, SSA's agricultural production has been relatively lower than in other developing countries.
• If rainfall had remained at its pre-1960s average, then, at the end of the 20th century, the gap in agricultural production between SSA and other developing countries would have been two-thirds smaller than it was.
• Changes in temperature have played a role in the rate of agricultural output in SSA, but declining rainfall levels are more significant.
• Declining rainfall had the greatest impact on agricultural productivity in Central Africa, followed by the Sahel-Sudan and Southern Africa regions. But data showed no significant effect of declining rainfall in East Africa or the Gulf of Guinea.
• The more robust agricultural production in developing countries outside SSA is linked to climate changes, but also higher levels of tractor and fertiliser use.

Given these historical impacts of climate change in SSA, it seems important that policymakers take specific steps to lower the sensitivity of agriculture in the region to future rainfall levels, which are predicted to decline further.

The researchers conclude:

• Policymakers should encourage the adoption of agricultural techniques that make the most efficient use of water.
• Improved irrigation systems and the development of crop grazing areas are important.

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