Determinants of African farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change: multinomial choice analysis

Climate change is expected to have a considerable impact on poor peoples' livelihoods in Africa and finding ways to help farmers adapt is of critical importance. This study analyses determinants of farm-level climate adaptation measures in Africa using a multinomial choice model fitted to data from a cross-sectional survey of over 8000 farms from 11 African countries.

The results indicate that:

• specialised crop cultivation (mono-cropping) is the agricultural practice most vulnerable to climate change in Africa
• warming, especially in summer, poses the highest risk as it encourages irrigation, multiple cropping and integration of livestock
• increased precipitation reduces the probability of irrigation and will benefit most African farms, especially in drier areas
• more farming experience promotes adaptation. Experienced farmers usually have better knowledge and information on climate change and agronomic practices that they can use to cope with changes in climate and other socioeconomic conditions
• better access to markets, extension and credit services, technology and farm assets (labour, land and capital) are critical for helping African farmers adapt to climate change
• larger farm sizes encourage the use of multiple cropping and integration of a livestock component, especially under dryland conditions, they also allow farmers to diversify their crop and livestock options and help spread the risks of loss associated with changes in climate

The authors highlight the importance of government policies and strategic investment plans that support improved access to climate forecasting, research into the development of and information about appropriate farm-level climate adaptation technologies, access to credit, farmer education and market development, especially in areas where dryland farming currently predominates.