Agriculture, food security and climate change
Climate Change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation
The impact of climate change and the costs of adaptation.
Authors:
G. Nelson (ed); M. Rosegrant (ed); J. Koo (ed)
Publisher:
International Food Policy Research Institute , 2009
The increasing pace of climate change, together with global population and income growth, threatens food security in the world. This food policy report presents research results quantifying the climate change impact, assesses the consequences for food security and estimates the investment required to offset the negative effects for humanity. It brings together, for the first time, detailed modeling of crop growth under climate change using two scenarios to simulate future climate. The research underlying this report estimates the impact of climate change on agricultural production, consumption, prices, trade, and estimates the costs of adaptation. It uses a global agricultural supply-and-demand projection model (IMPACT 2009) linked to a biophysical crop model (DSSAT) of the impact of climate change on five important crops: rice, wheat, maize, soybeans, and groundnuts. It assesses the climate-change effects on food security and human well-being using per capita calorie consumption and child malnutrition numbers. It estimates the cost of the investments—in three primary sources of increased agricultural productivity including agricultural research, rural roads, and irrigation which are needed to return the values of these two indicators from their 2050 values with climate change to their 2050 values without climate change. The report isolates the effects of climate change on future well-being and identifies only the costs of compensating for climate change. The research results suggest that climate change: i) in developing countries will cause decline in agricultural output for the most important crops. ii) will have varying effects on irrigated yields across regions iii) will result in price increases for important crops like rice, wheat and maize. iv) will lower calorie availability by 2050 at the same time increasing child malnutrition by 20 percent. To offset these consequences, the analysis points to the following policy and programme recommendations: i) Design and implement good overall development policies and programs. ii) Increase investments in agricultural productivity. iii) Reinvigorate national research and extension programs. iv) Improve global data collection, dissemination, and analysis. v) Make agricultural adaptation a key agenda point within the international climate negotiation process. vi) Recognize that enhanced food security and climate-change adaptation go hand in hand. vii) Support community-based adaptation strategies. viii) Increase funding for adaptation programs by at least an additional $7 billion per year. The report concludes that although these investments may not guarantee that all the consequences of climate change will be overcome, but it is better than doing nothing.
