Forestry and climate change
Adaptation of forests to climate change. Some estimates
Estimating the adaptation of forests to climate change
Authors:
R. Sedjo (ed)
Publisher:
Resources for the Future , 2010
This discussion paper reviews literature on the effect of climate change on the global forest sector. It delves into the literature on forest economics, climate change models, assumptions and inputs and relationships between the models and industrial forestry. It discusses the implications of the findings, costs and limitations and the need for adaptation. It applies the model predictions to three country case studies: Brazil, China and South Africa.
The research elicits the following findings:
i) overall forest area will not change much and the future availability of industrial wood is likely to be adequate despite the climate change.
ii) the three case countries show different capacities to adapt
iii) over the next fifty years the forest industry is likely to adapt without major relocation of its processing facilities.
iv) any climate-induced disruptions in the industrial forest resource are likely to generate unemployment in the processing industries and in the forest.
control of fire, disease and infestation is desirable. There should be programs and training in fire, pest and disease control.
The paper presents the following forest managers' adaptation options:
i) In the near term, damaged forests can be harvested and the usable wood commercially utilized.
ii) adaptation through harvesting and replanting can substantially reduce losses that would otherwise occur if natural systems were allow to adapt on their own.
iii) human management plays a large role in both salvage logging and promoting rapid regeneration.
iv) A decision to plant involves considerations of location, species, stock quality, and many other factors. Managers of short-rotation plantations could simply replant with the same species but using seed from a more appropriate provenance.
v) Other adaptations include shortening rotation periods, harvesting target species, salvage harvesting where damage has occurred, replanting of new species, and adjusting future investment levels, including relocation of plantations.
vi) The challenge for managers is replanting with the appropriate species and adjusting the management regime to the new climate situation.
vii) proactive policies that serve multiple purposes can be useful in adapting to climate change.
The research analysis for the three countries concludes that, Brazil will have adequate moisture but should aridity increase, the future supply of timber will be compromised. China appears to be in a strong position to maintain and expand its forests in the face of climate change. South Africa is more problematic because some models project decreased precipitation which points to problems for the existing plantations.
