Impacts of climate change on livelihoods: what are the implications for social protection?

This paper explores how rural agricultural livelihoods may be affected by changes in climate. Exploring Ethiopian case studies, the author uses a combined Transformative Social Protection and Household Economy Approach to determine how social protection can contribute to adaptation plans - specifically for the poor and most vulnerable - in the context of a changing climate.

The author also underlines that there are innumerable challenges in trying to establish the impacts of climate change with a degree of confidence. For example, the additional impacts of increasing temperature on crop water retention and the increasingly erratic weather patterns are factors that may change the outcome of a dedicated study.

The paper finds that:

• vulnerable populations will become increasingly more vulnerable if structures are not put in place to proactively address challenges of climate change
  
• a change in perspective from the highest levels of government and donor organisations, down to the household level, will be vital for Ethiopia to adapt to the coming changes
• Ethiopian policymakers’ broad vision of how development is pursued nationally may not reflect the reality faced by millions of poor people, either in terms of timeframes or policies
• pursuing the strategy of “encouraging agricultural livelihoods as a mean for elevating poverty” without change might only see increasing numbers of chronically poor, instead of a steady decrease
• a vision that extends beyond the “Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper” will be critical for rooting the five-year plan in long-term strategies that are sensitive to the coming environmental changes
  
• without political and financial support to back proactive plans for the future, the potential for poor households to adapt on their own is limited and ineffective.