Disaster Risk Reduction, climate change adaptation and human security. A commissioned report for the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

The relationship between climate change and security is a key concern among governments and international organisations. Security concerns include the potential for conflict over natural resources, population displacement, migration, and humanitarian disasters due to extreme climatic events. The recognition of these threats has generated growing interest in the relationship between disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). However, despite this interest, the broader consequences and social causes such as demographics, culture, and living conditions are seldom addressed.

The following are the main findings contained in this report:

• most migration will be internal within countries as a result of gradual climatic changes and not due to single catastrophic events
• the magnitude of environmental change expected from even 2°C of warming may cause significant negative social outcomes in low income and resource-dependent countries
• the evidence concerning the links between environmental change and violent conflict is inconclusive. Neither qualitative examination of cases, nor generalisable findings based on statistical data have produced robust findings. There is ample evidence to show that human insecurities are associated with a lack of basic needs such as food, water, and shelter, limited capabilities and freedoms, and thus have negative implications for human development
• there is evidence that dwindling resource stocks, decline in livelihoods, decreasing state revenues, and increasing inequality may create opportunities for some elites to harness resentment and mobilise people to fight – leading to conflict and changes in the distribution of power and resources
• there are underlying economic, political and other social factors that make environmental change a proximate trigger
• studies show that migration as a response to disasters is only possible after a certain level of wealth has been attained
• morbidity and mortality normally accompany migration which is a form of adaptation.
  

The report findings call for a more thorough assessment of the role of DRR and CCA in minimising threats to human security. Policy makers and practitioners in DRR and CCA are yet to develop coordinated efforts towards reducing climate change risks and vulnerability. Many discussions on CCA are not well informed by DRR strategies, tools, frameworks and experiences, suggesting the need for a renewed focus on the ways DRR and adaptation can influence the context in which climate change occurs. Rather than perpetuating contexts for disaster, it is possible to use DRR and adaptation strategies to create a context that promotes well-being and security.