• Migration

Migration

Despite growing concern of the international community about the consequences of migration resulting from environmental deterioration, research on environment and migration remains limited. This paper sets out to understand the reasons why environmental factors have been neglected by migration studies, and proposes a new definition of population movements induced by environmental factors.

The paper suggests several factors that may have curbed the study of links between environment and migration. These include the dominance of an " Economic Paradigm " in migration studies, a dominant "Political Paradigm " in refugee studies, and general skepticism about the concept of "environmental refugees".

It then identifies three consequences of climate warming, as forecast by the IPCC for the end of the 21st century, that appear to be the most threatening potential causes of migrations:

• the increase in the strength of tropical hurricanes and the frequency of heavy rains and flooding
• the growth in the number of droughts, with evaporation contributing to a decrease in soil humidity, often associated with food shortages
• the increase in sea levels resulting from both water expansion and melting ice.

The likely consequences of each of these factors for migration is discussed, with reference past experiences. Key findings include:

• global warming could lead to major forced displacements, resulting principally from rising sea levels
• this will only progressively manifest itself over the coming centuries, with the exception of the flooding of certain islands
• the increase in droughts and meteorological disasters will also have impacts in terms of migrations, but these will remain regional and shortterm, and are at present difficult to estimate
• political efforts and measures of protection will be able to lessen the need to emigrate provided that the necessary financial means are made available
• the concept of climate or environmental refugees should be handled with care, as it risks stoking xenophobic reactions or serving as justification for generalized policies of restriction for people seeking asylum
• including environmental motives in the definition of refugees seems politically unfeasible due to likely opposition of receiving countries, and would not achieve its objective of protection as the majority of displacements take place in the interior of the countries affected.

The paper concludes by suggesting two possible ways that the international system of protection should respond to these challenges:

• an increased international cooperation with a view to collective burden sharing of assistance and prevention in countries confronted with disasters
• the opening of emigration channels with the recognition of environmental push factors in subsidiary international instruments of protection, such as temporary protection schemes.
  
  

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