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Migration

Climate change and migration: improving methodologies to estimate flows

To what extent does climate change influence migration flows?

Authors: D. Kniveton; K. Schmidt-Verkerk; C. Smith
Publisher: International Organization for Migration , 2008

This paper is concerned with the question of trying to further the understanding of how different types of shocks and stresses caused by climate change influence different types of migration.

The document:

  • outlines the key elements of natural and human-induced climate change that is of potential relevance to migration;
  • discusses the current state of the debate about the relationship between climate change and migration; and
  • describes approaches with which to further our understanding of climate change-related migration.
The authors discuss that considering the volume of recent academic and policy publications about the impacts that climate change might have on migration, the number of studies on contemporary influences of climate on migration is surprisingly small, presenting a knowledge gap in this area.

The need to develop an understanding of how people cope with the different types of gradual stresses and sudden shocks brought about by climate change and variability is examined. It is asserted that such an analysis needs to recognise:
  • changing migratory behaviour might be just one strategy among a variety of other options available to individuals, households and communities in response to climate stresses;
  • climate is just one of the factors influencing migration decisions, so there is a need to understand to what extent climate is a relevant factor in the decision-making process; and
  • to what extent climate change and variability influence the choice of destination, the length of stay and the number of migrants sent.
The paper concludes that the study of climate change impacts on migration requires the urgent interdisciplinary study of the relationship of climate with migration involving detailed data collection and conceptual and numerical model development.