• Good governance

Good governance

This paper discusses the current political situation in Pakistan and its implications for democracy and future elections. It argues that President Musharraf faces the most serious challenge to almost eight years of military rule and that the choice is not whether a transition will come, but whether it will be peaceful and orderly, through free and fair elections, or violent. Despite the temptation by Musharraf and the military command to retain control, it warns that rigged or stalled elections would destabilise Pakistan, with serious international security consequences.

The paper outlines a number of possible options open to President Musharraf and the military command:

• Mucharraf could use the national and provincial assemblies (collectively the presidential Electoral College), to re-elect him; however, this would be strongly rejected by opposition parties the judiciary and the general public
• Musharraf could decide to compromise with the national-level moderate parties, reaching, for instance, a power-sharing accord with Bhutto’s PPP, which would likely win a free and fair election; however, this is likely to be rejected by other opposition parties and the Supreme Court may be reluctant to allow him to stand for public office
• Musharraf and the high command could impose a state of emergency, suspending democratic rights and freedoms postponing general elections for a year and in effect imposing absolute military rule and postponing national elections. This would fuel pro-democracy protests and civil disobedience, forcing the military either to back down or resort to violence
• it is also possible that the generals would conclude that a democratic transition is their best course ands would require them to withdraw their support from Musharraf and agree to genuine elections; however, this depends importantly upon how the international community uses its considerable leverage with the high command

The authors also highlight that the international community must understand that its interests are best served by a stable, democratically-governed Pakistan. It criticises the role of U.S. aid to the Pakistani military intended to combat terrorism in excluding moderate parties, and fuelling extremism.

The paper concludes with a number of recommendations for the Pakistan Government, political parties and the international community. These include:

The Pakistani government should:

• hold timely, free, fair and transparent national and provincial assembly elections this year, before presidential polls, so that assemblies with a new popular mandate can serve as the presidential Electoral College
• appoint a neutral, caretaker government formed in consultation with the main opposition parties in parliament, once the election schedule is announced, to supervise the general elections.

Political parties should:

• pool resources to expose electoral malpractice and fraud
• not accept military support during the election process or in the process of government formation.

The international community should:

• strongly and publicly warn against imposition of emergency rule or any other measure to stifle constitutionally-guaranteed freedoms of speech, association, assembly and movement.
• take steps to urge the military high command to accept a return to democracy
• take steps to assist the democratic transition
  
  

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