Security sector reform
Bangladesh today
Assessing threats to democracy and stability in Bangladesh
Authors:
; International crisis group
Publisher:
International Crisis Group , 2006
Bangladesh faces twin threats to its democracy and stability: the risk that its political system will founder in a deadlock over elections and the growing challenge of militant Islamism, which has brought a spate of violence. This report gives an overall view of the world's third most populous Muslim country and assesses the implications for instability. The authors argue that the situation does not justify great anxiety about the outbreak of major conflict domestically or the nurturing of significant extremism and terrorism internationally but there are elements of fragility in the system which need close watching and engagement. The international community can help to address the graver risks but only if it takes Bangladesh seriously as a strategic partner and moves towards more mature political engagement.
The following areas are considered:
- challenges and opportunities in the transition to democracy and the pending 2007 elections
- radicalisation in Bangladesh including the security sector
- the Islamist agenda and its proponents
- the risk of derailment and violence over the election period
The document concludes that serious risks are indeed posed by determined and sophisticated jihadis, and there is evidence of increased religious conservatism in certain areas. However, excessive fears of Islamism are not useful, and the many worrying indicators need to be balanced against positive trends and Bangladesh’s history of resilience.
The increased power of paramilitary and the criminalisation of politics all suggest ominous trends. There is no guarantee that Bangladesh’s traditions of resilience and social and religious tolerance will prevail over all threats. But if the international community is to play any role in boosting the chances, it needs a new approach, moving from treating Bangladesh as an aid recipient with only intermittent political significance to a strategic player worthy of broader engagement.
