• Post conflict reconstruction

Post conflict reconstruction

It was thought that Sub-Saharan Africa would be largely unaffected by the financial crisis. However, as many Sub-Saharan African countries are dependent on foreign finance inflows and are even more dependent on commodity based exports, this has been swiftly revised. Subsequently, economists are now warning that although Africa is the least integrated region, it could actually be the worst hit. Furthermore, as the most conflict-ridden continent in the world, any subsequent exacerbation of resource scarcity could increase unrest across Africa.

This paper explores the conflict and fragility dimensions of the financial crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa – asserting there is currently little in-depth information available. To address this, the authors conducted a review of available literature and detail:

• the main transmission channels of the financial crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa - explains why fragile states are particularly vulnerable to shocks and then looks at some of the impacts of the crisis on human development and poverty
  
• the conflict and fragility impacts of the financial crisis - looking at empirical studies which suggest a direct relationship between financial crisis/recessions and the incidence of conflict
  
• those countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that are considered to be fragile (or on the verge of fragility) and vulnerable to the effects of the financial crisis
  
• an overview of nine major donors current policies, priorities, and activities in East Africa, focusing on the Horn of Africa.

They then offer a number of conclusions/ recommendations, including:

• whilst countries which are currently politically unstable and suffer from pre-existing conflicts have suffered severely, decreasing income streams could even push some previously stable countries towards fragility
  
• the declines in human development made during economic deceleration outweigh the gains made during economic accelerations. Therefore, achieving the MDGs becomes an even more distant prospect if the impacts of the financial crisis are not mitigated
  
• fragility and conflict do not respect borders -  donors should think about focusing on specific regions and work with regional organisations and institutions where donor interventions could have a multiplier effect
  
• prevention is far cheaper than post-conflict reconstruction - the losses in human development during economic decelerations outweigh any gains made during economic acceleration. In addition, the costs of preventing a war are cheaper than intervening afterwards.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

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