Gaza - the aftermath

This paper discusses the events that unfolded in the aftermath of the Gaza War and what it meant to Israel’s relationship with the international community.In particular, the paper says that Israel has lost support in Europe, and Hamas has increased its status in the Middle East. Furthermore, it is by no means certain that Israel can rely on the strong support that it has in the past received from the United States. The paper mentions that, over the period that Israel has become more hardline in its attitude to the Palestinians, the crucial support of the United States that has for so long been taken for granted, may have been undergoing a steady erosion that will make it easier for the Obama administration to be more vigorous in the demands it may make, not just of the Palestinians but of the Israelis as well. Yet, at the same time, the political mood in Israel is less supportive of negotiating a lasting settlement with the Palestinians.

The further element, the paper adds, is that the slow but steady developments in irregular warfare mean that the security of Israel is likely to decline over the next decade unless a settlement can be achieved. This aspect is only recognized by a small minority of Israeli analysts and commentators, but that element may grow as the realization develops that the three-week Gaza War added little or nothing to Israel’s security. The paper concludes that, it has become apparent to the new Israeli government that the Obama administration regards a just and lasting settlement of the conflict to be in the security interests of the United States, given the radicalizing impact of the Gaza War, then attitudes may have to change rapidly. If so, that will be an unexpected consequence of the war.