Corruption
Yemen: fear of failure
Is Yemen in danger of becoming a 'failed state'?
Authors:
G. Hill
Publisher:
Chatham House [Royal Institute of International Affairs], UK, 2008
Yemen is the poorest nation in the Arab world, its location means it acts as a buffer zone between the Horn of Africa and Saudi Arabia and its president’s thirty year reign has been recently been struggling with a deteriorating security situation. International donors have pledged substantial sums, with aid money intended to encourage good governance, improve planning and mitigate the impending economic crisis caused by the projected decrease in oil revenues. With a view to reviewing options for Western governments and policy-makers, this paper takes a look at origins the civil unrest and conflict in Yemen, the fragile state of democracy, the extent of Yemen’s oil revenue, and external attempts to drive reform through aid.
The paper concludes that:
- Yemen presents a potent combination of problems for policy-makers confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country. It is the poorest state in the Arab world, with high levels of unemployment, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources.
- President Saleh faces an intermittent civil war in the north, a southern separatist movement and resurgent terrorist groups. Yemen's jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult.
- The underlying drivers for future instability are economic. The state budget is heavily dependent on revenue from dwindling oil supplies. Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing.
- Western governments need to work towards an effective regional approach with the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in particular Saudi Arabia.
- Future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, to Saudi Arabia. Piracy, organised crime and violent jihad would escalate, with implications for the security of shipping routes, the transit of oil through the Suez Canal and the internal security of Yemen's neighbours.
[adapted from the author]
