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Democratic governance

More freedom, less terror? liberalisation and political violence in the Arab World

Genuine democratisation may stem extremism

Authors: D. D. Kaye; F Wehrey
Publisher: RAND Corporation , 2008

Full text of document

Promotion of democracy is seen as a solution to terrorism but there are also arguments that democracy can do little to stop terrorism. However, scant empirical evidence links democracy to terrorism, positively or negatively. This study examines whether such links exist by exploring cases from the Arab world—the region that inspired this debate in the first place.

In particular it examines how the process of political reform influences calculations regarding political violence in six Arab states: Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Morocco. The cases rely on extensive fieldwork in each country, including interview of over 130 regional experts.

The findings suggest that:

  • the way political reform operates in practice is significantly different from the abstract theoretical assumptions made on either side of the debate
  • because democracy and, arguably, genuine democratisation are not apparent in these cases, and in all cases there has been significant backtracking, the effects of liberalisation are mixed and may be delayed
  • rather than fostering norms of tolerance, pluralism, and institutional inclusion, government-led reform processes in the Arab world often bring about intolerance and exclusionary political systems, contributing to, rather than undermining, support for political violence
Yet, controlled state processes and effective security institutions, including repression, have contained levels of political violence in many instances. Of all the assertions linking democracy to terrorism, the legitimacy argument seems to have the most significant impact. The enhanced legitimacy of the system produced through political openings can undercut extremist actors. But, the decline of a regime’s legitimacy when reforms are not viewed as genuine or if significant reforms have been reversed can threaten long-term stability.

The report concludes that:
  • pressing ahead with genuine democratisation, not just limited reforms, may stem extremism over time by bolstering the legitimacy of weak and vulnerable regimes
  • democracy promotion is one critical way to diminish motives and support for violent acts, but counterterrorism policy must rely on multiple tools to effectively address this complex and multifaceted challenge