• Electoral systems & reforms

Electoral systems & reforms

This study, using survey data on voter opinions and actual voter turnout in the Kenyan elections 2007, argues that ethnic voting can be explained on the basis of a minimax-regret strategy which suggests that the voter is motivated to vote in order to avoid regretting should a less preferred candidate were to be selected as a result of the voter abstaining.

The authors hypothesise that decision to participate in the elections was influenced by the expected benefits as per the minimax-regret voting model and test the predictions of this model using data of voter turnout.

The analysis shows that turnout across ethnic groups varied systematically with expected benefits. The results suggest that ethnic voting patterns are to a large extent the outcome of voting on the basis of minimax-regret. Individuals participated in the elections primarily to avoid the maximum regret should a candidate from another ethnic group win.

The three main presidential candidates, Kibaki (a Kikuyu), Odinga (a Luo) and Kalonzo (a Kamba) were overwhelmingly supported by members of their own ethnic groups. Even voters from other ethnic groups that did not have a major presidential candidate contending in the elections were strongly aligned to one of the three main presidential candidates.

Further the survey data also indicate that:

• there are low levels of trust amongst ethnic groups, fuelled by perceptions that the current government has favoured certain ethnic groups and discriminated against others
• the country is highly polarized along ethnic lines, a factor which could explain the recent episodes of ethnic violence

The findings point to the necessity of constitutional reforms that devolve power and place sufficient constraints on the executive so as to minimise the likelihood of ethnic-based discriminatory practices.

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