Health systems
An aging world: 2008
All countries must adapt quickly to accommodate a new age structure
Authors:
K. Kinsella; W. He
Publisher:
U.S. Census Bureau, 2009
Population ageing has emerged as a major demographic worldwide trend. On the one hand the reality of global ageing and increased longevity represents a triumph of medical, social, and economic advances. But on the other, population ageing has created significant challenges to health care systems, and existing models of social support, pensions and insurance.
The report provides detailed information on life expectancy, health, disability, gender balance, marital status, living arrangements, education and literacy, labour force participation and retirement and pensions among older people around the world.
In particular the authors examine nine international population trends (as identified in 2007 by the National Institute on Aging (NIA) and the U.S. Department of State):
- the world’s population is ageing: people aged 65 and over will soon outnumber children under age 5 for the first time in history
- life expectancy is increasing which raises questions about the potential for the human lifespan
- the number of the oldest old is rising: people 80 and older are the fastest growing portion of the total population in many countries
- some populations are ageing while their size declines
- noncommunicable diseases are becoming a growing burden: chronic noncommunicable diseases are now the major cause of death among older people in both developed and developing countries
- family structures are changing: if people live longer and have fewer children, family structures will transformed and care options in older age may change
- patterns of work and retirement are shifting: shrinking ratios of workers to pensioners and people spending longer time in retirement mean increasing burdens on existing health and pension systems
- social insurance systems are therefore evolving: an increasing number of countries are evaluating the sustainability of their systems and redesigning old-age security provisions
- new economic challenges are emerging: population ageing has and will have large effects on social entitlement programmes, labour supply, and total savings worldwide
Specific highlights of the report include:
- while developed nations have relatively high proportions of people 65 and older, the most rapid increases in the older population are in the developing world. The current rate of growth of the older population in developing countries is more than double that in developed countries
- as of 2008, 62 percent of the world’s people 65 and older live in developing countries. By 2040, today’s developing countries are likely to be home to more than 1 billion people 65 and over - 76 percent of the projected world total
- the 65-and-older population in China and India alone numbered nearly one-third of the world’s total in 2008
- childlessness among European and U.S. women 65 and older in 2005 ranged from less than 8 percent in the Czech Republic to 15 percent in Austria and Italy. Twenty percent of women 40–44 in the United States in 2006 had no biological children. This raises questions about the provision of care when this cohort reaches advanced ages
- in countries with well-established pension and social security programs, many older adults provide shelter and financial assistance to their adult children and grandchildren. Older people in developing countries, although less likely to provide financial help to children, make substantial contributions to family well-being through such activities as household maintenance and grandchild care
