Predicted trends

The number of orphans as a result of HIV and AIDS is projected to reach 25 million globally by 2010. An area of great concern continues to be sub-Saharan Africa, where the epidemic has had its greatest effect thus far. The number of children orphaned by AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa will continue to increase quite dramatically if current trends are not stopped. The number of double orphans (a child who has lost both parents) in Africa is also predicted to increase by 180 per cent from 1990 and reach 7.8 million by 2010. Studies have shown that countries with high levels of HIV and AIDS will have a disproportionately high number of double orphans as the epidemic advances. Double orphans have been shown to be more disadvantaged than single orphans. There is also an increasing proportion of maternal orphans (a child whose mother has died). While more research is needed to fully assess the implications of this, household surveys have shown that maternal orphans are likely to be 'virtual' double orphans. With traditional support systems already under severe pressure, many extended families will soon be overwhelmed and in greater need of external support and protective safety nets.