Long wave impacts

HIV and AIDS as a long wave event is defined by a cycle of infection, orphaning and eventual death that would result in each generation of AIDS orphans born into higher prevalence environments, with a higher chance of contracting HIV. For instance, a 15 year old girl in a 40 per cent prevalence environment would have over a 90 per cent chance of contracting HIV in her lifetime. This would result in earlier orphaning and a decreasing life expectancy for each generation.

This has a major impact on the social structures and the intergenerational transfer of skills from older to younger generations. Breaking the bonds of the society, through this cycle, could result in major changes. For instance, being born into a 'risky' environment could result in the attitude that life is short. This has major consequences for the decision making process and social interactions. Several questions arise as to the long term impacts of HIV. What will it mean to have orphans running households? What does it mean for the intergenerational transfer of skills? There is a need to consider the psychological impacts of various coping strategies.