Defining poverty
Identifying chronically deprived countries: results from cluster analysis
Identifying the most in need of aid in non-OECD countries
Authors:
E. Anderson
Publisher:
Chronic Poverty Research Centre, UK, 2007
This paper provides a classification of non-OECD countries on the basis of the level of, and the change in, their average welfare over recent decades. The aim is to improve on existing classifications and to provide a useful and policy relevant analysis,which can then feed into further research. The method used is the statistical technique of cluster analysis.
The main finding is that four welfare indicators (GDP per capita, child mortality, fertility and under-nourishment) all show strong evidence of three distinct country clusters:
- a 'chronically deprived' group, characterised by low initial levels of welfare and relatively slow rates of progress
- a 'good performers' group, consisting of countries with similarly low initial levels of welfare but faster rates of progress
- a group of 'others', consisting of countries with higher initial levels of welfare and moderate rates of progress.
In regard to policy implications the author finds that one of the main issues is the amount of aid the different groups receive. For example, the partially chronically deprived countries appear significantly under-aided while the partial good performers and the across-the-board others appear significantly over-aided.
In conclusion, the author points to the necessity to consider whether donors are pursuing the right aid strategies in different groups of countries.
