Trade liberalisation
Resurgent protectionism: risks and possible remedies
The importance of concluding Doha Round for mitigating protectionist risks
Authors:
U. Dadush
Publisher:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace , 2009
Although the impact of trade-restricting measures enacted so far is small, the risk of a devastating resurgence of protectionism is real. This paper deems that a trade war today would generate even greater losses than those associated with protectionism during the Great Depression. The paper believes that G20 leaders must set a coordinated plan to avoid a resurgence of protectionism. In addition, it underscores that WTO surveillance of national recovery measures should be clearly endorsed.
To mitigate protectionist risks on the short term, the paper recommends the following:
- acting aggressively on the broader economic recovery agenda, including injecting fiscal and monetary stimulus, and helping the most vulnerable countries and groups
- the moratorium on new trade restraints agreed at the inaugural G20 summit should be reaffirmed through to the end of 2010 and given teeth
- international consultative groups should be established under the auspices of the G20 to monitor support to sensitive sectors, and to promote the minimisation of trade distorting effect
- the G20 should reaffirm its determination to bring the Doha negotiations to a successful conclusion by the end of 2009
- how can negotiations be made faster, more capable of accommodating diverse interests of members, and more successful in addressing today’s most pressing issues?
- should negotiations be increasingly based on plurilateral and sectoral agreements rather than the single undertaking?
- how can the WTO draw on the energy of regional trading agreements, and better discipline and incorporate them, so as to make progress on overall trade liberalisation?
