Counting the real cost. The long-term effects of natural disaster in Southeast Asia

The cost of a natural disaster is too often measured only in terms of immediate financial losses. An Overseas Development Institute (ODI) study examines long-term effects of disaster in relation to three case studies in Fiji, the Philippines and Vietnam. Does the impact of a natural disaster on a country vary according to its state of economic development? Do economic factors influence preparedness for and response to disaster? And do economic planners fail to take the risk of natural disaster sufficiently into account? The study report concludes that disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including simple and cheap public education campaigns, offer big humanitarian and economic gains.

Combined social survey and statistical methods were used to enable the research to dig deeper than studies based on simplistic damage reports and other orthodox approaches that tend to ignore long-term impacts. Future disaster contingency plans based on such approaches will only serve to protect physical assets. Natural disaster is (says the ODI report) a more complex matter and development policymakers should show more interest in long-term impacts on human resources and local economies. Key findings of the study were that:

• natural disasters can blight small island economies like Fiji's, though not inevitably
• effects on national economies of countries with greater land area are harder to track
• impacts can include lost investment, pressure on national budgets and more inequality
• aid programmes have often ignored the risk of natural disaster as a major influence on poverty, though they are mostly aware of the link
• long-term economic effects of natural disasters can be influenced by the nature of plans to prevent and cope with them. Officials often underrate economic threats of natural hazards
• official provisions to monitor and manage disasters are poorly integrated and structured

An overly simplistic view prevails among economic planners. It is that the level of a country's development directly influences how badly it is affected by natural disaster. This view is based on a research literature which focuses too narrowly on short-term physical and financial losses, says the study report. Other lessons and implications arose from the research findings, viz:

• Setting prevention, control and relief measures in place well in advance of disasters, including simple and cheap public education programmes, can bring significant economic benefits to any country that is disaster-prone, regardless of its general state of development.
• Hazard assessment, prevention and containment measures should be built into all development projects and economic activities, not left to specialist agencies to look after.
• Aid programmes should reflect an understanding of the connections between poverty and natural hazards and social and humanitarian aid projects and programmes should act on it.
• All phases of natural disaster assessment, from pre-investment to post-disaster must be improved and specific government bodies appointed to orchestrate co-ordinated efforts.

Source(s):
1. The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in southeast Asia and the Pacific. Research report to ESCOR (DFID) on Project No. R6294, by Charlotte Benson (March 1997)
2. The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Fiji, ODI Working Paper 97, ODI, London, C. Benson, 1997.
3. The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Vietnam, ODI Working Paper 98, ODI, London, C. Benson, 1997.

Funded by: DFID (UK) 1995-1997

id21 Research Highlight: 1999-January-04

Further Information:
Charlotte Benson
c/o Overseas Development Institute
Portland House
Stag Place
London SW1E 5DP
UK

Tel: +44 (0) 171 393 1600
Fax: +44 (0) 171 393 1699
Contact the contributor: cbenson321@aol.com

Overseas Development Institute

Other related links:
Disasters: The Journal of Disaster Studies, Policy and Management