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A 100-day agenda for a new Zimbabwe

Adam Smith International’s new report sets out a 100 day agenda for a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe, which include clear actions for a new regime and Western governments who will need to step in quickly to help that government rebuild Zimbabwe.

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Zimbabwe has been in steady decline for almost ten years but there are signs now that the downward gradient is increasing rapidly.

The essential three Fs – forex, fuel and food – stand at staggering lows and the government is running out of options. The nationalisation of foreign companies, which is currently being debated in the country’s parliament, is a desperate last attempt to appropriate some resources to feed the structures of government. Even if the legislation goes ahead, it will only succeed in speeding-up the country’s descent into chaos.

While President Mugabe has survived tough times in the past it is impossible to maintain a government without the necessary resources. Veteran writers on Zimbabwe point to his firm grip over the army, his mercurial power over the elections and his successful manoeuvring against the Mujurus, but put simply: the economics do not add up. Sooner or later the government will collapse because it cannot afford to keep itself going. The important question therefore has to be: are we prepared for when it does collapse?

Speed is critical in addressing the problems of a failing state like Zimbabwe. It is much easier to take firm and effective action at an early stage than to wait until the situation is no longer advantageous. The lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan are very clear on this point. Little was done to reconstruct Iraq in the immediate aftermath of the allied victory so that, partially as a consequence, the security situation worsened to such an extent that reconstruction is now next to impossible. Similarly in Afghanistan, it took a very long time to deliver any concrete benefits to the population, a significant factor in the re-emergence of the Taliban.

Zimbabwe will need a clear plan and the political will to implement it. From the international community it will need high quality advice and assistance as soon as possible. It will be vital to build up the momentum for reform from the earliest days of the new government. However, with no plan for rebuilding a ‘new Zimbabwe’ no momentum will develop at all. The various national interests of actors such as the United States, China, South Africa, the United Nations and the World Bank will cause paralysis in the international community or set its members against each other while the country sinks into a humanitarian quagmire. What is needed is a practical agenda for developing the country that the international community can organise itself around in advance of regime change.

Consequently, Adam Smith International produced a report offering recommendations to a future Zimbabwean government as well as to the international community. The first part of the report addresses the government directly providing an agenda consisting of approximately 30 policy recommendations; the second part provides donors with a set of actions that will be necessary to support the government’s agenda; both parts focus only on the first 100 days following the transition to a new government. These three innovations help to create a practical and practicable development agenda that can secure the physical infrastructure of government, restart key government functions and provide a platform from which to rebuild the civil service. These are the critical steps to putting the country back on its feet. It is these steps that were taken too late by those involved in rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan and it is these steps that will be sorely missing if the international community does not prepare to support a new Zimbabwe.

Our experience suggests that overcoming the challenges faced by Zimbabwe will take commitment, hard work, and time, but with good advance planning, effective policies and prompt and well-managed assistance Zimbabwe will be able to do better than other countries that have recently faced the task of large-scale reform and reconstruction. We therefore hope that this report is both a useful contribution to debate and a practical guide to action.

Zane Kanderian

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Further Information
Zane Kanderian
Social Development Adviser
Adam Smith International
Westminster Tower
3 Albert Embankment
London SE1 7SP
United Kingdom

Tel +44 (0)20 7091 3511
Fax +44 (0)7980 622 517
Email Zane.Kanderian@adamsmithinternational.com

Useful links
100 Days: An agenda for Government and Donors in a New Zimbabwe, A report by Adam Smith International, July 2007

August 2007

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