Far from the front line: how likely is universal primary completion by 2015?

The second Millennium Development Goal (MDG) calls on the international community to ensure that by 2015 all boys and girls will be able to complete primary school. A book from the World Bank assesses the likelihood of achieving universal primary school completion (UPSC) – the most important of the Education for All (EFA) goals – by 2015. The book presents a wealth of statistics on educational indicators lays out the policy reforms and incremental domestic and international financing required to achieve UPSC.

Much remains to be done. During the 1990s the average rate of UPSC in the developing world only rose from 72 to 77%, far short of the progress required to ensure UPSC by 2015. The global average masks major regional differences. In sub-Saharan Africa barely half of all school-age children are reported to complete primary school. The Middle East and North Africa showed a disturbing pattern of stagnation over the 1990s.  

The World Bank reports a mixed picture:

• 37 of 155 developing countries have achieved, or have virtually achieved, UPSC with another 32 on track to reach the goal on trend rates of progress achieved during the 1990s.
• 86 countries are at risk of not making it.
• 27 nations are “seriously off track” – on current trends they will not have reached even half the target by 2015.
• The poorest sub-Saharan states and many countries scarred by conflict will have to rise at unprecedented rates if they are to meet the target.

In order to quantify what must be done before 2015 the authors focused on the 55 largest low-income countries which are home to three quarters of all children out of school globally. The small number of countries within this group which have achieved or are close to UPSC have done so by devoting a higher share of their gross domestic product (GDP) to public primary education, paying teachers an average annual wage of about 3.3 times per capita GDP, maintaining an average pupil teacher ration of 39:1 and keeping average repetition rates below 10%.

World Bank projections assume that developing countries will increase their domestic funding for EFA and will finance 90% of the incremental recurrent costs of achieving the goal by themselves. The gap between domestic finance capacity and total education spending needs in the run-up to 2015 will peak at 15% of total expenditure. The bulk of required external support will be needed in sub-Saharan Africa.

To achieve UPSC in all low-income countries by 2015, the World Bank estimates would require about US$3.7 billion per year in external aid - or more than a trebling of the current level of aid to primary education in low-income countries. To achieve the goal in all developing countries, including middle-income countries where education unit costs are higher in dollar terms, would require an estimated US$5.7 billion per year in external aid for primary education.

Other needed changes include:

• better targeting of aid to EFA priority countries
• more flexible, pooled donor assistance in support of sector-wide approaches
• more effective monitoring of key outcomes and wider sharing of knowledge
• reducing unit costs by shifting to community-based construction of classrooms
• supporting the global EFA Fast-Track Initiative launched in 2002 to assist low-income countries in scaling up implementation of donor-endorsed education sector plans.

Source(s):
‘Achieving universal primary education by 2015: a chance for every child’ World Bank, by Barbara Bruns, Alain Mingat and Ramahatra Rakotomalala August 2003 Full document.

Funded by: World Bank and the Government of the Netherlands

id21 Research Highlight: 20 May 2004

Further Information:
Barbara Bruns
World Bank
1818 H Street, NW
Washington DC 20433
USA

Tel: +1 202 473 1825
Fax: +1 202 522 3235
Contact the contributor: Bbruns@worldbank.org

World Bank Global Education Reform

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'Going into a decline? Assessing global aid flows to education'

'Moneyed classes: public spending on universal primary education'

'Meeting education development goals: simply a question of money?'

'The missing 65 million: getting girls into school'

'Class struggles: the challenges of achieving schooling for all' Insights Education #2