Facing up to forecasts – adapting to climate change

The fact that the world’s climate is changing is now beyond dispute. Global warming is likely to have significant social, as well as environmental, consequences. Developing countries have specific challenges in adapting to these changes.

Research by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the International Institute for Environment and Development questions the common assumptions that adaptation will involve costless adjustment, but also that resource-dependent sectors of society are the least able to cope. The poor are not passive victims of change, they argue, but have important experience to share.

There is a great deal of uncertainty on the impacts of climate change in particular places. A number of different models are used to forecast what the weather will do in the future, but their predictions differ widely. Uncertainty in projecting climate change often comes, for example, from lack of observations on how ecosystems will react to conditions they have never before experienced. It is also dependent on social factors, such as population growth and the possible uptake of low carbon technologies. Again, it is not always possible to accurately predict these factors.

Despite this uncertainty over the expected impacts, the need to adapt is critical. Many countries have begun the planning process required to create a National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) funded through mechanisms of the Climate Change Convention. Climate change is a broader development issue. A number of factors will affect vulnerable groups’ resilience to its consequences. These include:

• their social capital;
• the ability of governments and the private sector to be flexible and take advantage of opportunities presented by climate change; and
• the existing well-being and health of those likely to be affected.

Poor and marginalised people will be worst affected by many consequences of climate change, such as increased flooding and droughts. However, some of these groups have been adapting successfully to weather extremes for many years. During the twentieth century, for example, rainfall in the Sahel dropped by 25-33%. This was a significant change to which many pastoralists, in many ways, successfully adapted.

A new approach to climate change in developing countries is necessary. This must incorporate the following measures:

• The experience of fishers, farmers and others who have adapted successfully to weather extremes should guide international processes and agreements.
• Adaptation is a process that must involve civil society, governments and individuals. It is not something to be negotiated solely between high-level international institutions.
• Current poverty reduction policies tend not to consider climate change. However, goals such as devolving power locally are fundamental to sustainable development. They are also necessary for creating the capacity to cope with climate change. Addressing climate change increases the need to promote sustainable development.

Climate change is an urgent issue for all societies; both the reduction of the causes of climate change and adapting to its consequences require action today. The time for ‘wait and see’ is gone, because many developing societies are facing increasing variability and observed climate changes. These have significant implications for well-being. Although planning is difficult in the face of uncertainty, experiences from the past and present can inform international, national and local preparations. Climate change is becoming a key part of the international development agenda. Improving the capacity to adapt involves giving people power locally, learning from local experience and improving governance. Climate change is likely to add to the problems of poor and marginalised people, but solutions and processes can be developed that are complementary to sustainable development.

Source(s):
‘Adaptation to climate change in the developing world’, Progress in Development Studies 3, pp. 179-195, by W. Neil Adger, Saleemul Huq, Katrina Brown, Declan Conway and Mike Hulme, 2003

Funded by: NERC, ESRC and EPSRC

id21 Research Highlight: 15 January 2005

Further Information:
Neil Adger
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,
School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia,
Norwich
NR4 7TJ
UK
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk

Tel: +44 (0) 1603 593 732
Fax: +44 (0) 1603 593 738
Contact the contributor: n.adger@uea.ac.uk

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

University of East Anglia, UK

Other related links:
'Securing development in the face of climate change'

'Responding to climate change'

Eco Equity

IIED Climate change programme